American society is deeply divided, and because of the unique U.S. election system, both candidates hold about 47% of the vote. They are expected to secure their usual red (Republican) and blue (Democratic) states.
Donald Trump is leading in political debates on the economy, wars, immigration, and education about sexuality. Kamala Harris is focusing on Trump’s temperament, arguing he lacks the right character for office. As Americans continue to vote, Trump’s political messages seem stronger than Harris’s emphasis on personality.
Last week, we visited two swing states and six counties in both urban and rural areas. We spoke with about 150 voters from various ethnicities, genders, and age groups.
Because of the nation’s division and the peculiar election system, both candidates already have about 47% of the vote. Each can safely assume they have around 220 electoral college votes from their stronghold states. This article doesn’t predict the election outcome, which depends on a small number of voters, turnout, and specific regions. Instead, it provides a broad assessment of the public mood based on conversations with Americans just 10 days before polling ends.
Four Issues Boosting Trump’s Campaign
1. The Economy
Trump’s campaign asks a simple question: “Are you better off now than four years ago?” Most people answer no, mainly due to high prices for groceries, gas, and housing. Although the Biden-Harris administration has achieved strong economic performance with high employment and record manufacturing, the rising cost of living overshadows these accomplishments. Many voters feel that Trump was better for the economy.
2. Immigration
Republicans question whether the U.S. should have open borders and if there’s been a surge in illegal immigration. Many voters believe the country should have secure borders and are concerned about illegal entries. Trump is seen as someone who understands and can solve this problem. While Democrats point out that Trump blocked a border bill, making him central to resolving the issue, voters still associate him with strong immigration policies.
3. Wars and International Conflicts
Republicans highlight that under Trump, Russia didn’t attack Ukraine, and the U.S. wasn’t involved in as many foreign wars. They suggest that Trump can keep America out of conflicts and restore order. Democrats offer detailed arguments about international affairs, but many voters feel that Trump maintained peace while Biden did not.
4. Cultural and Sexual Education
Republicans question changes in cultural norms and education about sexuality. They ask if there are only two genders and whether topics about sexuality should be introduced in schools. While some arguments are based on misinformation, many parents are concerned. Democrats support the LGBTQ+ community but may not have effectively addressed societal worries. Consequently, Trump has leveraged this issue to his advantage.
Democrats Focus on Personality and Abortion Rights
Realizing they aren’t winning the political argument on these issues, Democrats emphasize abortion rights and focus on Trump’s personality. They argue that Trump is extreme, unstable, and unfit for office, which resonates with voters worried about his character. Republicans tell their supporters to overlook Trump’s rhetoric and focus on his record.
Conclusion
On key issues, Trump’s politics have an edge. This election may hinge on whether concerns about Trump’s personality prevent him from reaching the necessary 270 electoral college votes.
