As trading begins on October 11, Indian stock market indices, including the Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to experience a subdued opening, reflecting mixed signals from global markets.

Current trends in the GIFT Nifty suggest a weak start for Indian benchmarks, with GIFT Nifty trading around 25,090, indicating a decline of approximately 30 points from the previous close of Nifty futures.

In the prior trading session, the domestic market closed with slight gains, buoyed by positive global cues. The Sensex rose by 144.31 points, finishing at 81,611.41, while the Nifty 50 recorded a modest increase of 16.50 points, settling at 24,998.45.

The Nifty 50 has formed a small negative candlestick on the daily chart, characterized by minor upper shadows. According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, this pattern suggests a range-bound movement between 25,150 and 24,950. The appearance of long upper shadows indicates emerging weakness near these resistance levels. Although the double bottom formation around 24,700 has yet to be confirmed due to a lack of sustaining upside momentum, a decline below this level could signal a bearish trend. Shetti notes that if the Nifty can hold above the 25,250 to 25,300 resistance levels in the coming sessions, it could trigger a new upward movement, potentially pushing the index toward the next resistance range of 25,500 to 25,600.

Nifty 50 Projections

After entering a phase of consolidation on October 10, the Nifty 50 managed to close higher by 16 points. However, the index has struggled to regain its position above the 50-EMA (Exponential Moving Average) for two consecutive days, indicating ongoing weakness. Support levels are observed at 24,950 and 24,900, with a drop below 24,900 possibly leading to a correction towards 24,750 and 24,700. Conversely, resistance is identified at 25,150, and a breakthrough above this could drive the index towards 25,350 and 25,400 in the near term, as noted by Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities.

Dr. Praveen Dwarakanath, Vice President at Hedged.in, highlighted that the formation of an insider candle reflects indecision in the market, with day-long rallies met with selling pressure, suggesting continued weakness in the index. Despite a downward trend in the ADX DI-line, momentum indicators hint at potential declines. Data from options writers indicate short covering of 25,300 puts alongside increased call writing at 25,000 and above, reflecting a sideways to bearish sentiment.

VLA Ambala, Co-Founder of Stock Market Today, advises a neutral approach in the upcoming weeks until market prices stabilize. She pointed out that Nifty ended the day at 24,998.45, forming a small red range Doji candlestick pattern, which reinforces a bearish outlook. The Nifty’s RSI levels stand at 42 daily, 59 weekly, and 75 monthly, signaling that caution is warranted. Ambala recommends a “sell-on-rise” strategy, with anticipated support levels at 24,930, 24,800, and 24,650, and resistance levels at 25,080 to 25,240.

Bank Nifty Predictions

The Bank Nifty index outperformed the Nifty 50 in the previous session, closing 523.90 points higher at 51,530.90 and forming an insider candle that suggests market indecision. Momentum indicators are showing signs of recovery from oversold conditions, hinting at a potential upward move. However, the ADX DI-line remains above the ADX DI+ line, indicating persistent weakness. The immediate resistance of 51,700 was not reached during Thursday’s rally, further emphasizing the underlying weakness.

Options writer data points to short covering of 51,500 calls, while 51,500 puts were being written, suggesting a possible rebound toward resistance levels.

Disclaimer: The insights and recommendations provided are those of individual analysts or brokerage firms and do not represent the views of our publication. We encourage investors to consult with certified professionals before making any investment decisions.